640
AXNT20 KNHC 051641
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN APR 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1620 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N09W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N16W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N16W TO 02S43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A NEW COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING 4-6 FT SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE
NW GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N WEST OF
94W, AND WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, THE DIURNAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,
AND WEAK TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED IN THE E GULF AND INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THESE TROUGHS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES, AND 2-4 FT SEAS, PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
NEAR APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA TO 26N95W AND TO 19N95W BY THIS
EVENING, THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR TAMPA TO 26N92W
AND STATIONARY TO 18N94W MON AFTERNOON, FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO
25N90W TO 24N94W AND STATIONARY TO 18N94W LATE MON NIGHT, THEN
STALL AND PERHAPS LINGER INTO MOST OF THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS, ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF
INTO MON, THEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE NE
GULF TUE THROUGH THU. NEAR GALE, TO AT TIMES GALE, CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR FLORIDA WED AND WED NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADES OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE ANALYZED TO BE 7-9 FT, PER THE
LATEST SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA RECEIVED FOR THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN, AND GENTLE TRADES WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS ARE ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS APPARENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH MON ALLOWING FOR PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TO DIMINISH. A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH TUE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. TRADES MAY
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS A NEW AND STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AND BERMUDA ARE
DOMINATING THE BASIN. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 50W, ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFFSHORE ZONES. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-10 FT
FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W, INCLUDING ALONG THE EASTERN
ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, TRADES ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH 4-7 FT SEAS IN OPEN
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO MON AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E
AND WEAKENS. IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY MON, THEN SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY WEEK. AS IT DOES, A WESTWARD MOVING INVERTED TROUGH N OF
HISPANIOLA WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
MAY FORM AS A RESULT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMAS. ANY LOW THAT FORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THEN N OF THE REGION WED INTO THU. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO
THE SE U.S. WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHEAST WINDS N AND W OF THE COLD FRONT TUE THROUGH LATE WEEK,
ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST AND STAY INFORMED ABREAST FOR POSSIBLE GALE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS TUE.
MAHONEY
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