070
AXNT20 KNHC 060559
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON APR 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N21W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 01N36W TO BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO 04N W OF 26W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA, TO SOUTH OF
TAMPICO, MEXICO. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS W AND NW OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO AND OFFSHORE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OFFSHORES TO THE NW GULF OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE 8 TO 11 FT BASED ON THE LATEST
ALTIMETER DATA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE FROM THE NE AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SW AND STRETCH
FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MON NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL TUE NIGHT INTO THU FROM SW FLORIDA INTO
THE SW BASIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MON, THEN
STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NE BASIN N OF THE BOUNDARY TUE
THROUGH THU. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN U.S BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHERE SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 6
FT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE FROM THE NE AND SEAS ARE
SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO MON ALLOWING FOR PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TO DIMINISH. A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL MEANDER INTO MID-WEEK, MAINTAINING FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARRIBBEAN, WITH MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING WED NIGHT AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION AND SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL WATERS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT. OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS, WINDS
ARE ALSO MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE E TO SE, AND SEAS ARE MODERATE
TO ROUGH IN DECAYING NE SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE, OVER
THE FAR E ATLANTIC, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM THE N TO NE
AND SEAS ARE MODERATEB TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE
SE COAST LATE TONIGHT, THEN MOVE SLOWLY SE AND REACH 31N75W TO
NEAR MELBOURNE, FLORIDA, BY TUESDAY MORNING, AND BERMUDA TO SOUTH
FLORIDA BY WED MORNING, BEFORE STALLING. LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT NE OF THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE
NE TOWARD BERMUDA INTO WED. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD NEAR-GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST, AND STAY INFORMED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS TUE.
RAMOS
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