576
AXNT20 KNHC 061004
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON APR 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE SE
U.S. COAST TODAY, THEN MOVE SLOWLY SE AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUE, THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS WED. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS ON TUE, THEN ACCELERATE NE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND OUT OF THE BASIN TOWARD BERMUDA BY WED. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THIS LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SE U.S., ALREADY STRONG NE WINDS N AND
W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE FURTHER, WITH GALES DEVELOPING TUE
AFTERNOON OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA, THEN SPREADING EAST BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. VERY ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 15 KT ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF GALES. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY LATE THIS WEEK, CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N21W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 01N45W. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM APALACHICOLA BAY TO JUST NORTH OF
VERACRUZ, MEXICO. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST AS WELL AS WITH 180 NM OF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHWARD TO
AROUND 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. SEAS WHERE THE STRONG WINDS EXIST
ARE 8 TO 11 FT. S AND E OF THE FRONT, GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE AND REACH
FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT, THEN DRIFT
SLOWLY SE OF THE BASIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NE
BASIN, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE ATLANTIC AFTER THE FRONT
EXITS THE GULF OF AMERICA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME FRI AND
FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE EASTERN U.S BUILDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BENIGN TRADE WIND DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE
BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN, AND GENTLE NE WINDS IN THE WEST. MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT IN THE NW BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH ORIENTED NORTH OF HAITI WILL MEANDER
INTO MID-WEEK, DISRUPTING THE TYPICAL PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE BASIN AND LEADING TO MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY
WED NIGHT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
WILL REPLACE THE TROUGH AND WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SW ATLANTIC
STARTING TUESDAY.
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION AND SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL WATERS ALONG
WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS, ROUGH SEAS IN
DECAYING NE TO E SWELL EXIST E OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH ALONG
70W IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE ANTILLES TO
24N BETWEEN 62W AND 77W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK NW OF A LINE FROM 31N60W TO THE SE BAHAMAS, AS
VERY ROUGH SEAS AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT SOME AREAS.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
KONARIK
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