367
AXNT20 KNHC 061752
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON APR 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST ACROSS 31N78W TO BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN FOR
THROUGH WED, THEN STALL FROM 31N65W TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WED EVENING THROUGH THU NIGHT. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE NE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY
OFF NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 70W, TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE BY TUE MORNING. SEAS UNDER THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO BUILD AND REACH 14 TO 17 FT. AS THE STALLED FRONT
WEAKENS, WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD DECREASE TO BETWEEN STRONG AND
NEAR-GALE BY LATE WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO STEADILY SUBSIDE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR CONAKRY, THEN REACHES WESTWARD TO 09N19W. FARTHER SOUTH, AN
ITCZ EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM 01N20W TO NEAR THE AMAZON RIVER DELTA
AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UP TO 155 NM ALONG
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM JUST OFF TAMPA,
FLORIDA TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N94W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWARD AS A
COLD FRONT TO BEYOND VERACRUZ, MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE ENTIER NORTHERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR
AND WEST OF THE COLD ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
GULF, INCLUDING THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO
NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT EXIST BEHIND THE STATIONARY AND
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, WINDS NEAR TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ, MEXICO
ARE PEAKING AT NEAR GALE-FORCE. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONTS,
GENTLE NE TO E WINDS WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL START MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND REACH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT, THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE BASIN TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT,
THEN STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN BASIN, AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE ATLANTIC AFTER THE FRONT EXITS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE EASTERN U.S BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A FAIR AND MODEST TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADES WITH SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NNE TO ENE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN THROUGH WED.
BY WED NIGHT, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH TOWARD THE
REGION WILL INCREASE WINDS TO BETWEEN FRESH AND STRONG MAINLY
EAST OF 72W.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING ABOUT AN
UPCOMING GALE WARNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA ACROSS 31N61W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST
ACROSS 31N78W TO BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. COUPLING WITH
CONVERGENT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IN THE
EAST ATLANTIC, ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHWEST OF MEDEIRA ACROSS 30N30W TO NEAR 29N43W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. REFER
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG NW TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE SEEN
OFF GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
FRESH NE TO ENE WINDS WITH 10 TO 14 FT SEAS IN LARGE N SWELL
EXIST BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE EAST ATLANTIC. GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE SEEN NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 43W AND
THE FIRST COLD FRONT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF
35W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN
MODERATE TO LARGE N TO NE SWELL EXIST.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
TUE, THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WED. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BAHAMAS ON TUE, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND OUT OF THE BASIN TOWARD BERMUDA BY WED. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THIS LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., ALREADY STRONG NE
WINDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE FURTHER, WITH
GALES DEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA, THEN SPREADING
EAST BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF GALES.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY LATE THIS
WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page