581
AXNT20 KNHC 071819
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE APR 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA
ACROSS 31N74W AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A LOW AT THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF OF AMERICA. NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE NE TO ENE WINDS ARE
FOUND BEHIND THIS FRONT OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NEAR 78W. SEAS
NEAR THESE WINDS RANGE FROM 10 TO 12 FT. AS THE LOW STARTS
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
CAUSE THE FRONT TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND SPREAD NEAR-GALE TO STRONG
GALE-FORCE WINDS TO OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND ALSO EASTWARD TO NEAR
70W. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 14 TO 18 FT UNDER THE STRONGEST
WINDS. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN WED EVENING, BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
EAST ATLANTIC LARGE SWELL:
LARGE N SWELL BEHIND A COLD FRONT IS CREATING SEAS AT 11 TO 13 FT
NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 40W. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE GOING TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N.
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE SWELL SHOULD DECLINE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW 12 FT.
FOR BOTH EVENTS ABOVE, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THE GALE WARNING.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY OVER AFRICA. TO THE SOUTH, AN ITCZ
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF SOUTHERN LIBERIA AT 03N14W
ACROSS 00N30W TO NEAR THE AMAZON DELTA AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 140 M ALONG EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FOUND UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE REST OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR SARASOTA,
FLORIDA THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N84W TO A 1012 MB LOW AT
23N90W, THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN UP TO 120 NM NORTH AND 60 NM SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE 1012 MB LOW
TO SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR
THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH, AND OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO ENE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS EXIST
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG
ENE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 5 FT PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL DECREASE TODAY, BUT STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL INTO LATE WEEK OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE, LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED AND
THU OFFSHORE FLORIDA. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
FRI AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NNE TO ESE WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN INTO THU, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS TO THE WEST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE VERY BEGINNING
ABOUT A GALE WARNING.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA
ACROSS 31N74W AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT TO NEAR 26N, INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
25N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. A COLD FRONT CURVES WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N43W. PATCHY
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
OUTSIDE THE GALE WARNING AREA, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 8 TO 10 FT ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
FRONT. SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONT TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND 70W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS EXIST. FOR THE REST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 00Z
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W/LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS DOMINATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W OUTSIDE THE SIGNIFICANT N SWELL MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
7 TO 11 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, THEN STALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG
A BERMUDA TO FLORIDA STRAITS LINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT TO NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA THU. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING
NE GALES OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THESE GALES WILL SPREAD
EAST TO ABOUT 73W, MAINLY NORTH OF 28N, THROUGH WED NIGHT, BEFORE
GRADUALLY ENDING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 16 TO 18 FT WILL BE GENERATED BY THESE GALES,
AND ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL IMPACT A MUCH LARGER AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE BASIN
INTO THE WEEKEND, SO MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.
CHAN
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