042
AXNT20 KNHC 082327
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU APR 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1037 MB LOCATED
OVER THE NE OF THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 18 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THU. THEN,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES, ALTHOUGH LARGE NE SWELL WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH SAT.
EAST ATLANTIC LARGE SWELL: LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL CONTINUES
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC,
CAUSING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT EAST OF ABOUT 40W. ROUGH
SEAS COVER A MUCH BROADER AREA N OF 10N AND E OF 55W. THIS SWELL
EVENT WILL DECAY SLOWLY, AND SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER WILL REACH
AS FAR SOUTH AS 15N BY EARLY THU. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 FT
THU NIGHT, ALTHOUGH ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
BOTH THE WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT IN THE EAST ATLANTIC.
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE OF MADEIRA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NW
GALES TO 40 KT, WITH SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH 09/06Z. VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE ALSO REACHING THE ISLANDS.
FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THEIR WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES
SW TO 03N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N
TO 05N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W, AND S OF 01N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 03N AND E OF
10W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE FAR WEST-
CENTRAL GULF, NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND THE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS OFFSHORE SW
LOUISIANA TO ABOUT 28N.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO FRI. LOOKING AHEAD,
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG E
WINDS OFF WESTERN CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES, PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST, UP TO 25 KT, OVER THE USUAL LOCATION, THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA OFF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA, WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THESE WINDS ARE CAUSING ROUGH SEAS, UP TO ABOUT 8 FT. MAINLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE BASIN INTO THU, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS TO THE WEST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
METEO-FRANCE ALSO HAS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST
ZONE OF MADEIRA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS ON THESE HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1038 MB LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N34W. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, BUT A ZONE OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
EXTEND N OF 20N AND E OF 40W, WHERE SOME SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY
SWELL IS LEADING TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DETAILS ON THE SWELL AND ITS
FORECAST PROPAGATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. A
GALE CENTER, SPINNING NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS, IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING SECTION FOR FORECAST DETAILS RELATED
TO THE MARINE CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
GR
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