277
AXNT20 KNHC 091051
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU APR 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
EAST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL AT 13-15
SECONDS CONTINUES PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC LEADING TO SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FT EAST OF ABOUT
40W FROM 15N TO 25N. ROUGH SEAS COVER A MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE AREA,
NEARLY ALL WATERS E OF 50W. THIS NORTHERLY SWELL IS GRADUALLY
DECAYING, AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 FT TONIGHT. ROUGH SEAS,
HOWEVER, WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
SAT.
WEST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: EARLIER NE GALES IN THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND NE AND N OF THE BAHAMAS GENERATED VERY ROUGH
SEAS AND DECAYING SWELL FROM THESE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT TODAY N AND W OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY 31N65W TO 25N75W.
SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 FT TONIGHT, WITH ROUGH SEAS CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
BOTH AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N22W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 18W-24W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE SE BASIN AS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT,
CONVECTION HAS ENDED, LEAVING THE BASIN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NE U.S. FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF, ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS BASIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG E WINDS OFF WESTERN
CUBA.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
EARLIER CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS MORNING, LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN VOID OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TRADE WINDS DOMINATE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTHERN AND LOWER PRESSURE
ALONG THE EQUATOR. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS DOMINATE THE SE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IMPACTING THE
REMAINING WATERS, EXCEPT FOR THE NW WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, MODERATE
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BASIN, LEADING TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL COMMENCE S
OF CUBA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL LEADING TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT SWELL
GENERATED BY EARLIER GALES OFFSHORE FLORIDA IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
GALE-FORCE WINDS W OF A STALLING COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
30 KT CONTINUE TO THE W OF THE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
31N67W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N70W TO JUST E OF
THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT THEN DEVOLVES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS TROUGH IS INDUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL WHERE THE STRONG WINDS ARE ONGOING, WITH SEAS OF UP TO 15
FT OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ORIENTED ALONG 65W N OF 22N IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.
FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE BASIN, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF
1029 MB CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N36W DOMINATES. ITS
ASSOCIATED BROAD RIDGING REACHES SOUTHWARD ENCOMPASSING THE AREA
NORTH OF ABOUT 10N AND BETWEEN 16W AND 68W. THIS IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD FRESH EAST WINDS, WITH A ZONE OF STRONG WINDS FROM 17N
TO 25N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W. MUCH OF THE WATERS ARE BEING IMPACTED
BY NORTHERLY SWELL, AS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE, BUT AREAS W OF 50W, AND E OF THE IMPACTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HAVE GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, LOW PRESSURE NE OF MADEIRA IS NO
LONGER INDUCING GALES, BUT IS PRODUCING STRONG N WINDS N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND E OF 25W, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT N AND W OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRI AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, BUT LARGE NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF BERMUDA, MAINLY
EAST OF 70W, SUN NIGHT, AND STALL ALONG ROUGHLY 27N THROUGH MON.
KONARIK
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