089
AXNT20 KNHC 091749
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU APR 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
WEST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: A LONG FETCH OF NE FRESH TO NEAR
GALE NE WINDS ARE GENERATING VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA AND AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. A SOFAR BUOY
REPORTED SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT NEAR 29N73W AS OF 17 UTC. GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT
TONIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RESIDE FROM
ROUGHLY 31N65W TO 25N75W. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW 12 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT, WITH ROUGH SEAS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
BOTH AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N18W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 00N23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF 08N
EAST OF 18W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING SOUTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 18W-35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF TODAY WITH SEAS 6-10 FT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 3-6 FT. NO
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF CURRENTLY.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS BASIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG E WINDS OFF WESTERN
CUBA AND OFF THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BE IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
ONLY A WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY, AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TRADES ARE
RESTRICTED TO ONLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH SEAS
6-8 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BASIN, LEADING TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL COMMENCE S
OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND S OF HISPANIOLA STARTING SAT
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
A SIGNIFICANT SWELL OFFSHORE FLORIDA IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT
CONTINUE AT NE FRESH TO STRONG OVER OUR WATERS WITH SEAS 10-14
FT. UP TO AROUND 200 NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE, BUT WITH A N SWELL OF 8-10 FT. ELSEWHERE, A
STRONG 1038 MB AZORES HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF OUR WATERS AT
37N36W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO 25N65W ON THE WEST AND TO
23N17W ON THE EAST. THE LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING NE TRADES FROM
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH OF 12N AND EAST OF 50W. SEAS ARE 10-14 FT
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 15N-31N EAST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE WITH SEAS 5-10 FT IN MAINLY N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STALLING FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRI AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS,
BUT LARGE NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF BERMUDA, MAINLY EAST OF 70W, SUN NIGHT,
AND STALL ALONG ROUGHLY 27N THROUGH MON.
LANDSEA
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