143
AXNT20 KNHC 100419
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI APR 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
WEST ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED COLD FRONT
LINGERING FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING A LONG
AND SUSTAINED FETCH OF STRONG NE WINDS, WHICH IS GENERATING VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT. RECENT SOFAR
OCEAN BUOYS AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 11 TO 14 FT
SEAS PERSISTING NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 31N, AND EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. STRONG NE WINDS AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT, AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. HIGH SEAS
IN LARGE NE SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 12 FT FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURED GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AGAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS ON
BOTH AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10.5N14.5W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03.5N20W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
01.5S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W, AND S OF 02.5N BETWEEN 24W AND
47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
GULF REGION. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE E AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NE PORTIONS. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA AND OVER
THE OPEN WATERS CONTINUE AT 6 TO 9 FT, AND EXTEND TO OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE, NE TO E WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER, WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE
NW GULF MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST WINDS
OFF WESTERN CUBA AND OFF THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT, AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE NW COAST OF CUBA. AS A RESULT,
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TRADES ARE RESTRICTED TO ONLY OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT IN THE NW PART OF THE BASIN.
ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE, SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
INTO THE EASTERN BASIN, PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BASIN, AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
COMMENCE SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA STARTING SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT OFFSHORE FLORIDA IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA THROUGH
31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, THEN MORE WESTWARD TO ALONG THE NW
COST OF CUBA, WHERE IT IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 60W,
AND N OF 24N. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS TO 14 FT ARE NORTH THE FRONT, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL ARE UP TO AROUND 240 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, A STRONG 1036 MB AZORES HIGH IS CENTERED
NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS AT 35N37W WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES NORTH OF 13N AND EAST OF
50W. SEAS ARE 8 TO 14 FT E OF 50W, AND 5 TO 8 FT E OF THE FRONT
TO 50W. S OF 13N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH
SEAS 7 TO 10 FT IN MAINLY N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, WHERE IT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN TO THE NW COAST OF CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY STRONG NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NUDGED
SOUTHWARD BY THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL THEN BE
LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL THAT WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS LOOK TO RETURN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
STRIPLING
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