039
AXNT20 KNHC 102309
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT APR 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N17W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH
OF 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE OF THE UNITED STATES INTO THE GULF
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8
FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED MAINLY OVER THE NW AND SE
PARTS OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ON MONDAY, WHEN STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
RESULTS IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL,
SW AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FLARED-UP OVER EASTER CUBA, JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN
CUBA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE, SHALLOW
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
BASIN PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BASIN, LEADING TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
PREVAIL SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA STARTING ON SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO EASTERN CUBA. A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAINLY N
OF 22N. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUSTAINS FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO 10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ABOUT 55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1034 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N37W.
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OBSERVED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, PARTICULARLY N OF 15N AND E OF
55W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN MOSTLY FRESH WIND SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUN.
ROUGH SEAS FROM LARGE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
AREA.
GR
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