322
AXNT20 KNHC 110609
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT APR 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
05 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICA CONTINENT. AN
ITCZ EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 04N13W THROUGH 00N29W TO NEAR SAO
LUIS, BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED UP TO 200 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
TO NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT EXIST AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, FLORIDA STRAITS
AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT WHILE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
WEAKENING INTO MIDWEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FUNNEL PULSING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
STARTING ON MON. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE AT A MOSTLY
MODERATE STATE, EXCEPT REACHING A ROUGH STATE, AT TIMES, IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEGINNING ON MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A FAIR TRADE-WIND REGIME PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE NE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 9 FT
ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE
LEE OF CUBA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WINDS OVER THE BASIN. THIS IS GOING TO SUSTAIN STRONG
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF CUBA, IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA STARTING ON SAT
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA
ACROSS 31N64W AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO EASTERN CUBA.
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION UP TO 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION AT
THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE EVIDENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXCEPT SEAS IN THE BAHAMAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT.
EAST OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FT
ARE NOTED NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 52W AND THE FRONT. TO THE SOUTH,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE
PRESENT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W,
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN LARGE NE
TO E SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SUN. WINDS BECOME LOCALLY STRONG STARTING SUN NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOME. THE WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK TO
MOSTLY FRESH STARTING TUE SOUTH OF 28N AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEAR 31N. ROUGH SEAS FROM LARGE
NE SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK BETWEEN BERMUDA
AND THE BAHAMAS.
CHAN
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