488
AXNT20 KNHC 111550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT APR 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N13W TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N20W TO 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 00N TO 08N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
IMPART SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF, PROVIDING FOR MODERATE OR
WEAKER E TO SE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. THE RELATED GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH
LATE SUN NIGHT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS INTO MIDWEEK. A RIDGE
WILL STRETCH WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGH TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FUNNEL PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF STARTING ON MON. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BE AT A MOSTLY
MODERATE STATE, EXCEPT REACHING A ROUGH STATE, AT TIMES, IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEGINNING ON MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN, WITH A COLD FRONT NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA OVER THE W ATLANTIC, AND HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED OVER
THE SE UNITED STATES AND IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC, LIMITS
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH 7-9 FT SEAS. WITHIN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, FRESH NE WINDS ARE ANALYZED AS SOME OF THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS DRAINS THROUGH THE PASSAGE. MODERATE NE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. IN THE REMAINING
SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, TRADES ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH 4-7 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE
WINDS OVER THE BASIN, LEADING TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
STARTING TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N70W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS, AND 7-9 FT SEAS,
PREVAIL WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL NORTH OF 15N, WITH
MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES SOUTH OF 15N. 8-10 FT SEAS, IN DECAYING
LONG PERIOD NE SWELL, ARE ANALYZED FROM 05N TO 25N BETWEEN 20W AND
60W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. WINDS BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG STARTING SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
SOME. THE WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK TO MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
STARTING TUE SOUTH OF 28N AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEAR 31N. ROUGH SEAS FROM LARGE NE SWELL WILL
LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS.
MAHONEY
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