751
AXNT20 KNHC 120555
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN APR 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE MARINE ZONES OF
AGADIR FROM 12/09Z THROUGH 13/00Z, AND TARFAYA FROM 12/15Z
THROUGH 13/00Z. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT, LISTED ON THE WEBSITE AT HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER GAMBIA
AND SOUTHERN SENEGAL, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N25W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 02N25W ACROSS 00N30W TO NEAR SAO LUIS, BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE
ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N NEAR THE AFRICA COAST FROM GUINEA-BISSAU
NORTHWARD TO GAMBIA, AND FROM 02S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN UP TO 230 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR VERACRUZ, MEXICO. FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF, NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT, THEN WEAKEN
INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WHILE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FUNNEL PULSING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STARTING ON SUN. SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF WILL MOSTLY BE MODERATE, EXCEPT REACHING ROUGH AT TIMES IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEGINNING ON MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A ROBUST TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE CAUSING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER AND EARLIER ALTIMETERY DATA
REVEAL FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT AT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN, LEE OF CUBA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA, LEADING TO
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND RISING
SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA STARTING TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATE NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM EAST OF
BERMUDA ACROSS 31N60W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 56W AND THE FRONT ITSELF.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION AT THE BEGINNING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9
FT ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT, EXCEPT SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, GENTLE
WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MODERATE MIXED SWELLS ARE NOTED NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE FRONT. TO THE EAST, A BROAD ATLANTIC
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1033 MB AZORES HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SSE WINDS WITH SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT IN LARGE NE TO E
SWELL DOMINATE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO ESE WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS BACK TO A
COLD FRONT REACHING WATERS NEAR 55W BY LATE MON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY FRESH STARTING TUE SOUTH OF 28N AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE NEAR 31N. ROUGH
SEAS FROM LARGE NE SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE BETWEEN BERMUDA
AND THE BAHAMAS.
CHAN
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