021
AXNT20 KNHC 131648
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON APR 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE MARINE ZONES OF AGADIR THROUGH 14/12Z AND TARFAYA THROUGH
14/00Z. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA SUPPORTS THESE GALE FORCE
WINDS (FORCE 8 ON THE BEAUFORT WIND SCALE) WITH SEVERE GUSTS. VERY
ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, ARE ALSO REACHING THIS AREA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT, LISTED
ON THE WEBSITE AT HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT. FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13.5W, THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 00.5S28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 00.5S28W TO
NEAR 01S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 04N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM, FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE
SE GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH E
WINDS ARE OBSERVED W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS THROUGH FRI. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO
PULSE ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, THROUGH TUE, AND OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED, DRIVEN BY LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT REACHES HISPANIOLA AND
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA, THE MONA PASSAGE AND
PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 8 TO
9 FT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA.
MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY, THEN MAINLY FRESH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT GALE WARNINGS OFF
MOROCCO.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO HISPANIOLA. FRESH
TO NEAR-GALE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE FOUND NEAR AND
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODERATE E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS OFF NE AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA. E OF THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES
AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 10N AND S OF A LINE FROM 30N19W TO
24N40W. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 31N54W TO HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY BUT
A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST REACHING PUERTO RICO BY THIS
EVENING. THEN, THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH WED
WHILE WEAKENING. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST WEST OF THE FRONT/TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH OF 27N THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH FRI.
KRV
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