999
AXNT20 KNHC 140948
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE APR 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: METEO-FRANCE HAS A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
FOR THE MARINE ZONE OF AGADIR THROUGH 14/12Z. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 34N19W AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA. ALSO, EXPECT SEVERE GUSTS, AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT, LISTED ON THE WEBSITE AT
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT. FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10.5N15W, THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD TO 02N20W TO 01N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N27W TO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF
05N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE NOTED OVER THE SE GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE OBSERVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
PARTICULARLY FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THESE WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO
SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE
FAR NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
OCCURRING. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH SAT, EXCEPT IN THE NE AND N-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE BASIN
WHERE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO PULSE ACROSS THE SE PART OF
THE GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS, THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AND OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED, DRIVEN BY
LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO
AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARE HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN, MAINLY N OF 15N AND E OF
70W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT PER ALTIMETER DATA.
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE FOUND IN THE LEE OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, AND JUST S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8
FT DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, INCLUDING BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA, AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC COMBINED
WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED NIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING OFF
MOROCCO.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST N OF PUERTO
RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE FOUND NEAR
AND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OFF NE
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
AMERICA. E OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB LOCATED NW OF
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST REGION. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS UP TO 30 KT, AND
SEAS UP TO 13 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER
AND ALTIMETER DATA N OF 20N AND E OF 20W, INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS WEAKENING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH JUST N
OF PUERTO RICO. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WEST TOWARD HISPANIOLA ON
WED, AND THE SE BAHAMAS ON THU. STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST W OF THE TROUGH, WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS.
GR
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