793
AXNT20 KNHC 150434
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED APR 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
10N14W, THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N15W TO 00N28W TO 02S45W TO COASTAL BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 05N SOUTHWARD, EAST OF 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N84W IN THE NE GULF. WINDS IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN ARE NE TO E FRESH.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 2-5 FT ACROSS
THE GULF THIS EVENING. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MOSTLY
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH SAT, EXCEPT IN THE NE AND N-CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE BASIN WHERE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO PULSE OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LOW IS INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NO OTHER DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITH SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TO THE LEE OF CUBA. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS 5-6 FT ARE ALSO OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
SEAS OF 3-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
OVERNIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
PREVAIL SOUTH OF CUBA, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LOW IS INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N61W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 60W-65W. FARTHER NORTHEAST, A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N50W TO BEYOND 31N35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. AN
EXPANSIVE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH NORTH OF OUR WATERS IS INTERACTING
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CAUSE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM
BERMUDA, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, AND TO THE CUBAN COAST. SEAS ARE 8-12
FT EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. LARGE NE SWELL IS CAUSING SEAS OF 8-10 FT NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 35W-50W. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. NEAR
THE COAST OF NW AFRICA, NE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH OF 20N
AND EAST OF 20W WITH SEAS 8-11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WEST
TOWARD HISPANIOLA ON WED, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THU,
THEN DISSIPATE FRI. STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST
WEST OF THE TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LEAVES WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG N WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA SUN NIGHT.
LANDSEA/RUBIO
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