686
AXNT20 KNHC 151637
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED APR 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1637 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12.5W, THEN
CONTINUES SW TO 02N15.5W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N15.5W TO
02S32W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
06S TO 05N BETWEEN 12W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02S TO 04N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE DIURNAL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE SW
GULF. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG
SEAS 2 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST- CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. THIS PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MOSTLY MODERATE
SEAS THROUGH SAT, EXCEPT IN THE NE AND N-CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
BASIN WHERE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO PULSE OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LOW IS INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. A RIDGE NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WITH
SEAS 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TO THE LEE OF
CUBA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ARE ALSO
OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF CUBA, AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN LATE IN THE
WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, AN UPPER-LOW IS INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N64W SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 19N TO 25N
BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. FARTHER NORTHEAST, A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 29.5N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A BERMUDA- AZORES HIGH
LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS IS INTERACTING WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS FROM BERMUDA,
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, AND TO THE CUBAN COAST. SEAS ARE 5 TO 9 FT
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BERMUDA- AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OVER THE
ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADES AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS.
NEAR THE COAST OF NW AFRICA, NE WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH OF
29N AND EAST OF 17W WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN BERMUDA
AND PUERTO RICO WILL DRIFT WEST TOWARD HISPANIOLA TODAY, THEN WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST WEST OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
THEREAFTER AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA SUN NIGHT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N TO
NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
KRV
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