636
AXNT20 KNHC 290300
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED APR 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N20W AND THEN TO 01S35W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 01S35W TO 03N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
CONFIRM MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF,
BETWEEN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND 1001
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH NE WINDS ARE LIKELY OFF THE
NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT OFTEN
DEVELOPS OVER YUCATAN IN THE EVENING. GENTLE BREEZES AND 3-5 FT
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR 1-3 FT OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF.
AREAS OF SMOKE DUE TO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST FIRES IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO ARE LIMITING VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 MILES OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH WED MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, A DIURNAL TROUGH WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING, THEN AT MOSTLY FRESH SPEEDS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF THU AND BEGIN TO STALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI, PERHAPS
OVER WATERS FURTHER SOUTH. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT, THEN REACH FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON SAT, AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH
TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH NEAR GALE WINDS POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ ON SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO AROUND 12 FT, OR POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER SAT AND SAT NIGHT, THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE NEAR GALE
WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT. MARINERS
SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF NORTHEAST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-6 FT. FRESH NE WINDS MAY BE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GULF OF HONDURAS CURRENTLY AS
WELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS, EXCEPT FOR 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY,
REACHING LOCALLY STRONG AT TIMES. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI, THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 26N68W THEN IS STATIONARY TO THE
NW BAHAMAS, WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH TO ITS EAST FROM 27N60W TO
20N65W. THE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF
THE FRONT, AND IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
AND 6-8 FT SEAS IN N SWELL FOLLOW THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND 4-6 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF 55W. FARTHER EAST,
A FRONT REACHES FROM THE EASTERN AZORES TO 26N30W TO 21N38W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT FOLLOWS, REACHING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN AZORES TO 31N33W TO 30N40W. MODERATE NW WINDS AND 5-7
FT SEAS IN NW SWELL FOLLOW THESE FRONTS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
FRESH E TRADE WINDS AND 5-6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 20N, AND
GENTLE BREEZES WITH 4-5 FT SEAS NOTED NORTH OF 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE E OF 55W ON WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THU, AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING E OF 55W ON SAT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUN.
CHRISTENSEN
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