142
AXNT20 KNHC 291117
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED APR 29 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND
CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N20W AND THEN TO 01S31W, WHERE
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 03N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 16W-20W, WITHIN 180
NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 31W-35W AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 29W-34W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT
OVER THE NW GULF PER RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA PASSES AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH, THE DIURNAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH
HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHERE ITS RELATED
GRADIENT IS BRINGING FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THAT PART OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF.
AREAS OF SMOKE DUE TO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST FIRES IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO ARE LIMITING VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 MILES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
GULF AND ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI. MODERATE SEAS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE MOSTLY SLIGHT SEAS WILL BE ELSEWHERE
THROUGH FRI. A DIURNAL TROUGH WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS AND AT NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF THU
AND BEGIN TO STALL THU NIGHT INTO FRI, PERHAPS OVER WATERS FURTHER
SOUTH. A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT, THEN REACH FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON SAT, AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH WINDS REACHING GALE-FORCE
OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ ON SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO AROUND 12 FT, BUT POSSIBLY HIGHER OVER WATERS AFFECTED BY THE
GALE CONDITIONS BEFORE SUBSIDING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONT. MARINERS SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS
SUSTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OFF NORTHEAST COLOMBIA
AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT. AN OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS SHOWS FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH EAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS
NOTED IN AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS REMAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
ALONG SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN,
REACHING LOCALLY STRONG AT TIMES. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI, THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AND DIMINISHING ON SUN. A GULF OF AMERICA WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO NEAR 26N69W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 26N61W TO 22N66W. A BROAD MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT IS SUSTAINING AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES REVEAL MODERATE TO
FRESH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 68W AND NORTH
OF 29N. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 7 TO 9 IN NORTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WEST OF
55W. OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED
FROM NEAR 31N27W TO 23N35W. BEHIND IT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N33W TO NEAR 29N40W. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN THE FIRST FRONT AND 34W. MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE FIRST FRONT. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT AS NOTED BY SEVERAL SOFAR SPOTTER OBSERVATIONS. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, THE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA PASSES REVEAL MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 34W
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 34W, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 46W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN THESE AREAS AS
NOTED BY OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N58W TO NEAR 26N69W WILL SHIFT E OF 55W LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ON THU, AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE IT SHIFTS E OF 55W SAT EVENING.
A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON
SAT, AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO NEAR VERO BEACH, FLORIDA EARLY
ON SUN AND STALL INTO SUN NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
UP ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME.
AGUIRRE
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