095
AXNT20 KNHC 301105
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU APR 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
11N15W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W, AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR AT
30W AND TO 01N46W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 09N AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03S TO 02N BETWEEN 38W-46W, AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-26W AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 31W-36W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 26N85W WHILE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE OVER THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WHILE MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND 1 TO 3 SEAS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. AREAS OF SMOKE DUE TO
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE LIMITING
VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 MILES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND ALONG THE
COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF
THROUGH FRI. MODERATE SEAS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE
MOSTLY SLIGHT SEAS WILL BE ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. A DIURNAL TROUGH
WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE EVENINGS AND AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD
FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT,
THEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MON. THE FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH WINDS
REACHING GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ ON SAT, LASTING
TO INTO SAT NIGHT OFFSHORE VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 12 FT, BUT POSSIBLY HIGHER OVER WATERS AFFECTED BY THE
GALE CONDITIONS BEFORE SUBSIDING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONT. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS
SUSTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OFF NORTHEAST COLOMBIA
AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA, WHERE SEAS ARE ABOUT 6 TO 7 FT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS REMAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN ALONG SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON,
REACHING LOCALLY STRONG AT TIMES. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI, THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AND DIMINISHING ON SUN AND MON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N72W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH GENTLE BREEZES AND 5-7 FT IN N SWELL
ELSEWHERE WEST OF 65W. FARTHER EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N45W TO 27N50W TO 26N55W AND TO NEAR 23N61W. MOSTLY FRESH TO
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N AND AS
FAR EAST AS 65W. SEAS ARE ABOUT 7 TO 10 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL WITH
THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT ARE ACTIVE
WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N. 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N35W, FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
REACHING FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES, TO 30N20W
AND TO 20N29W. GENTLE BREEZES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTH SWELL
ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N, AND WHILE MODERATE TRADES AND
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH
OF ABOUT 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 27N50W TO 26N55W AND TO NEAR 23N61W WILL
SHIFT E OF 55W NORTH OF 24N THIS MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY, THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO E OF 55W SAT. A
THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON SAT
AFTERNOON, REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W TO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUN,
THEN STALL THROUGH MON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT AT THAT TIME. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE
FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT THROUGH MON.
AGUIRRE
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