685
AXNT20 KNHC 302252
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI MAY 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING...A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT
WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT, THEN
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MON. THE FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH WINDS
REACHING GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ EARLY ON SAT,
AND ON SAT NIGHT NEAR VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 14 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W AND
EXTENDS TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N14W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED S OF 02N WEST OF
38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SEE DETAILS ABOVE FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT IN THE W GULF ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF, WHERE A 1014
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N82W. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE GULF WITH SEAS OF 1-4 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, ALABAMA, AND MISSISSIPPI WATERS. AREAS OF
SMOKE DUE TO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE
LIMITING VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 MILES OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AND
ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST YUCATAN COASTS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN,
AND LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH
FRI. MODERATE SEAS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WHILE SLIGHT
SEAS WILL BE ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD
FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT,
THEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MON. THE FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH WINDS
REACHING GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ EARLY ON SAT,
AND ON SAT NIGHT NEAR VERACRUZ.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE OVER N SOUTH AMERICA IS SUSTAINING FRESH TRADES OFF
NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE ABOUT 5-7 FT IN THIS AREA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH SEAS OF 2-5 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN, SUPPORTED BY A MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON,
REACHING STRONG SPEEDS AT TIMES. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MODERATE
TO FRESH EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI,
THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT,
THEN DIMINISHING ON MON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EAST OF
THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N71W. TO THE EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH 31N39W TO 21N58W, THEN BECOME A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH 4-7 FT IN N SWELL WEST OF 62W. MOSTLY FRESH W TO NW WINDS
ARE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 26N AND AS FAR WEST AS 63W.
SEAS ARE ABOUT 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL WITH THESE WINDS. FRESH TO
STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL PREVAIL
NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO 35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W. FARTHER
EAST, 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N27W, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS EAST, REACHING NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG ABOUT
20W-21W. MODERATE AND WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN N
SWELL ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N, AND WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF ABOUT 20N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST. THE COLD FRONT
IN THE W ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS N AND
NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO E OF 55W SAT. A THIRD COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON SAT AFTERNOON,
REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W TO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUN, THEN STALL
THROUGH MON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT
THAT TIME. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT THROUGH MON.
LANDSEA/STRIPLING/RIVERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page