016
AXNT20 KNHC 010617
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI MAY 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING...A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT
WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT, THEN
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MON. THE FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH WINDS
REACHING GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ EARLY ON SAT,
AND ON SAT NIGHT NEAR VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
AROUND 14 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CONFINED TO INLAND AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 04N16W TO 02N33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM 01S TO 05N BETWEEN
35W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SEE DETAILS ABOVE FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO OCCUR BEHIND A COLD
FRONT IN THE W GULF ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
CONNECTS TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR HOUSTON, TEXAS. THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AS SHOWN BY GLM DATA. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS ACROSS THE BASIN, THUS ALLOWING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N
AND OVER THE SE GULF, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE
SW BASIN AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS W OF 86W.
OTHERWISE, AREAS OF SMOKE DUE TO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST FIRES IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE LIMITING VISIBILITY TO 3 TO 5 MILES OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF AND ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST YUCATAN COASTS
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH FRI, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR YUCATAN IN THE EVENINGS. A STRONG
LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SAT, THEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MON. THE FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH WINDS
REACHING GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ EARLY ON SAT,
AND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 14 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
OVER N SOUTH AMERICA IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
OFF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE ABOUT 5-7 FT IN THESE
AREAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SEAS OF 2-5 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN, SUPPORTED BY A MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON,
REACHING STRONG SPEEDS AT TIMES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AND SUN NIGHT,
STALLING JUST NORTH OF THERE INTO MON. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY AND
SLIGHT WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH E OF THE BAHAMAS, AND A 1020 MB
HIGH LOCATED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N27W. A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTERSECTS THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE
IT EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 23N48W. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS
ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 25N AND
EAST OF 60W WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
NEAR 21.5N55W TO THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT THROUGH TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR 31N77W TO 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAVANNAH, GEORGIA ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS N AND NE OF THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT TO E OF 55W SAT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST ON SAT AFTERNOON, REACH FROM NEAR
31N68W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA ON SUN, THEN STALL THROUGH
MON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT
TIME. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH MON, ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR 31N. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS.
RAMOS
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