946
AXNT20 KNHC 031729
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN MAY 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1710 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED, BUT
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SW GULF
OFFSHORE VERACRUZ. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8-12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W, FROM 10N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR,
WEST OF 30W, INCLUDING COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZIL. MOST OF THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH A HOSTILE DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH
INHIBITS OTHER IMPACTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W, THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 03N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 02S36W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 07N EAST OF 17W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
A GALE WARNING FOR THE SW GULF.
THE LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MIAMI, FL, TO JUST NORTH
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
TO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NORTH
OF THE FRONT, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS, DIMINISHING TO GENTLE
SPEEDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS THE
BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, INCLUDING WITHIN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH
OUT BY MON MORNING OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ WILL
DIMINISH LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE, FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MON AND TUE TO SEE
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH
SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE W GULF TUE NIGHT INTO THU.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT - ALBEIT WEAKER - MAY REACH THE
NW GULF BY THU.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT ACROSS THE
BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EQUATORIAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO FLARE UP IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, PANAMA, COSTA RICA, AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON, EXPECT SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TUE THROUGH THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO MIAMI, FL. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO N
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS,
ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N57W AND 1019 MB HIGH NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N59W TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING NEAR 27N77W MON MORNING. THE
LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF
BERMUDA TUE MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY WED MORNING.
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT ON TONIGHT AND
MON. LOOKING AHEAD, CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME QUIESCENT TUE THROUGH
THU.
MAHONEY
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