015
AXNT20 KNHC 040441
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON MAY 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0440 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W, FROM 10N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST
AT 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH A HOSTILE DRY
ENVIRONMENT WHICH INHIBITS OTHER IMPACTS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W, THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 03N22.5W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N22.5W TO
00N38W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05S01N BETWEEN 21W AND 39W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND N
OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE SW FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 27.5N, EXCEPT FOR STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ.
SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE 5 TO 8 FT, EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 10 FT
OFFSHORE VERACRUZ. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE AND 2 TO 5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL WASH
OUT BY MON MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE W GULF TUE NIGHT INTO THU. A QUIET PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO START BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WIND OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 7 FT. GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW PART OF THE
BASIN ALONG WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH, CONTINUES TO FLARE UP IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, PANAMA, COSTA RICA, AND
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. SE WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE UP TO STRONG SPEEDS TUE THROUGH FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH 4 TO 8 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS,
ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 25N57W. TO THE
EAST, A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES OVER W AFRICA, IS PROMOTING AN AREA
OF MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS BETWEEN W AFRICA
AND THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM 31N59W TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING NEAR 27N77W EARLY
ON MON. THE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF BERMUDA TUE MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING BY WED MORNING. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NORTH
OF THE FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS SHOULD BECOME QUIESCENT TUE THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY REACH OUR NW WATERS THU NIGHT AND STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KRV
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