142
AXNT20 KNHC 041725
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON MAY 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED NEAR 20W
BASED ON AN OBSERVED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY FROM CIMSS AND ON
COMPUTER VORTICITY MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE
WAVE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 12N49W TO
JUST INLAND BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. THIS WAVE WAS ALSO INFERRED FROM
COMPUTER VORTICITY MODEL GUIDANCE, AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT TRAILS THE WAVE AXIS AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) IMAGERY FROM CIMSS.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 02N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N23N AND TO THE EQUATOR AT 27W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 02S32W TO 01S38W AND TO
NEAR 02S45W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 01N BETWEEN
21W-24W, AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 39W-44W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO JUST
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE A
WEAK 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL GULF JUST
EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR SOME
SECTIONS OF THE FRONT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
MOSTLY MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF 28N EAST OF 87W AND
SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT
FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL
WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE. MODERATE TO FRESH SE
TO S RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE W GULF TUE NIGHT INTO THU AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, THIS HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN, LEADING TO
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR REGIONAL WATERS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN PER LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA, EXCEPT FOR
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SEA ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SEA ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N70W
TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 1014 MB NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR 30N AND BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS AS SEEN IN RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASS. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 70W. MOSTLY FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE A
COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC: ONE EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 30N27W TO 21N35W AND THE OTHER ONE FROM 31N35W TO A WEAK
1014 MB LOW AT 28N33W AND TO NEAR 25N34W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRESSURES IN WESTERN AFRICA IS SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN THE WESTER AFRICAN
COAST AND 22W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT
AND 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO TUE
BEFORE THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND THE FRONT TRANSITIONS INTO A
COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS, WITH QUIESCENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND
THU FOR AREA WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY REACH OUR NW WATERS THU
NIGHT AND STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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