685
AXNT20 KNHC 050907
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE MAY 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 23W, S OF
22N, MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 07N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 57W, S OF
18N, AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W, AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N30W TO NEAR
THE COAST OF 02N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 03N BETWEEN 12.5W AND 28.5W, AND S OF
03N BETWEEN 34W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WITH
GENTLE E-SE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE TO S RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE W GULF TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO STRONG FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WED.
SIMILAR WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN WED EVENING.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL
WATERS THU MORNING, QUICKLY STALLING THU EVENING, THEN RETREATING
BACK INLAND FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM
THE EAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT, PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA AND OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT, ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, WITH
SIMILAR WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DISSIPATE BY TUE IN THE FAR NW BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 23.5N73W TO 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 25N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM
24N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO NOTED N OF 26N WITHIN ROUGHLY 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS NEAR THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS N OF 19N. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT SE OF THE FRONT TO 55W, AND 4-7
FT IN NW-N SWELL W OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND IS DESCRIBED MORE ABOVE. FARTHER EAST, A
1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N29W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N45W. FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7-10 FT SEAS ARE ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE S OF 19N AND W OF 40W, WHERE
SEAS ARE 4-7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS, WITH MAINLY MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SW N ATLC FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY INTO TODAY, THEN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SHIFT EAST
AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO MID-WEEK AS THE
BOUNDARY WEAKENS, WITH QUIESCENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND THU
FOR AREA WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY REACH OUR NW WATERS THU
NIGHT AND STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING AND A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PREVAIL BY THE WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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