380
AXNT20 KNHC 051715
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE MAY 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 25W, S OF
11N, MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION, ALSO ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH
ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE, IS NOTED S OF 09N BETWEEN
15W AND 26W.
THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 58W, S OF
18N, AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17W, AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N28W TO NEAR
01N50W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 04N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OFFSHORE
THE NW COAST OF CUBA, WITH A FRONTAL REMNANT TROUGH THEN ALSO
ANALYZED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THESE FEATURES. MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NW GULF, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE W GULF TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG
FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WED. SIMILAR WINDS
WILL PULSE NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN WED EVENING. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS THU MORNING,
QUICKLY STALL THU EVENING, THEN RETREAT BACK INLAND FRI AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A PAIR OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE
SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE
ONGOING IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AND 2-5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, WITH
SIMILAR WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATE BY TUE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE BAHAMAS
NORTHEASTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE
WINDS S OF THE FRONT ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND FROM THE SW.
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1017 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 31N22W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 20N31W. ANOTHER LOW PRES IS
ANALYZED NEAR 28N29W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS N OF 27N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.
MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING.
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC S OF 15N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF 15N
AND AWAY FROM FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N60W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 27N68W, TO 24N74W AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25.5N79.5W, AND CONTINUES
FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY, THEN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL
SHIFT EAST AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NORTH OF 27N WEST OF THE FRONT TO
NEAR 76W WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WEAKENS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS THU NIGHT. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY FRI, THEN
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR, OR ALONG 30N AND WEST OF 70W BY FRI
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
ADAMS
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