512
AXNT20 KNHC 060200
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED MAY 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 26W, S OF
11N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 59W, S OF 18N, AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W, AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N26W TO NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 25W, AND S OF 05N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN
CENTRAL MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN
THE 3-4 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF
1-3 FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS FROM
TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO TONIGHT INTO WED. SIMILAR WINDS WILL
PULSE NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS AND INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS THU MORNING, QUICKLY
STALL THU EVENING, THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE
EAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT, PREVAIL OVER THE
WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF
3-5 FT, GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, WITH
SIMILAR WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATE BY TUE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF
THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 24N72W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N75W AND TO A WARM FRONT
FROM THERE TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N79W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATES STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF
4-6 FT, PREVAIL WEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT, ARE FOUND N OF 29N WITHIN 60
NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE
OVER THE NE WATERS, ONE A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 28N30W, AND THE OTHER A
1017 MB LOW NEAR 30N21W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA
NEAR 41N31W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH OF THE LOWS.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT, PREVAIL S OF 15N BETWEEN 35W
AND 60W. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6
FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF
55W THU WHILE THE REST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NORTH 27N AND
WEST OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 76W WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS
THU NIGHT. IT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST WATERS INTO EARLY FRI, THEN BECOME STATIONARY NEAR 30N
AND WEST OF 70W BY FRI EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY FRESH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA LATE SUN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA.
AL
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