670
AXNT20 KNHC 060501
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED MAY 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 27.5W, S OF
10N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 62.5W, S OF 19N,
AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N17.5W, AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01.5N26.5W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
00.5N29W TO NEAR 00N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 03N BETWEEN 26W AND 47W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 06.5N AND EAST OF 23W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE
GULF AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN CENTRAL MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN
THE 3-5 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF
1-3 FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WITH LOWER
PRESSURES OVER MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS. SIMILAR WINDS
WILL PULSE FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF
COASTAL WATERS THU MORNING, QUICKLY STALL THU EVENING, THEN LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CETRAL
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT.
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT, GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NORTH OF JAMAICA, WHERE FRESH
WINDS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N61W EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH 31N61W TO 25N70W TO 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AT 26N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT, PREVAIL EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 28N.
WEST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG
WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29.5N16W TO
24N30W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND A
1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N29W IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 17W AND 34W.
SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 9 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT, PREVAIL S OF 15N BETWEEN 35W
AND 60W. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6
FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF 31N AND
EAST OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AS A
COLD FRONT WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION DISSIPATES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT, GRADUALLY LOSING
DEFINITION AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT.
WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA,
INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF
NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT. OTHERWISE,
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA.
KRV
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