587
AXNT20 KNHC 061740
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED MAY 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 30W, S OF
11N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A WEAK EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 65W, S
OF 17N FROM NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA, AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 01N28W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 02N31W TO
NEAR 00N48W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 13W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO OCCURRING S OF 05N AND W OF 24W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
US IS DRIVING FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 87W,
WHERE SEAS OF 3-6 FT PREVAIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND
1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WITH LOWER
PRESSURES OVER MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO
STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS. SIMILAR WINDS
WILL PULSE FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO INTO EARLY TODAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS
THU MORNING, QUICKLY STALL THU EVENING, THEN LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, CONFIRMED BY RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH SEAS OF
6-8 FT IN THIS AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS SEEING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 2-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED SE OF BERMUDA FROM 31N59W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO NEAR 26.5N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES FROM THAT
POINT TO 27.5W76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N AND W OF 55W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND
THE FRONT, WHILE MAINLY GENTLE S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 27N37W TO 24N26W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SUPPORTS FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS N OF 22N BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND 40W. MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC S OF 20N IS SEEING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WHILE AREAS N
OF 20N AND AWAY FROM ANY AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ARE SEEING
GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N59W TO 26N69W WILL SHIFT E OF 55W EARLY ON THU. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT,
GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, MAY PRECEDE THIS FRONT AS IT
EMERGES OFF THE COAST. ELSEWHERE, WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS
WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF
A STRONGER FRONT. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
ADAMS
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