594
AXNT20 KNHC 062059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU MAY 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 31W, S OF
11N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 01N29W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 01N35W TO
NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 08N AND E
OF 26W, AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 31N47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF W OF
87W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER MEXICO WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS
IN THE WESTERN GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH SAT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS THU
MORNING, QUICKLY STALL THU EVENING, THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE ON SUN, AND REACH FROM
NORTH- CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON MON,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE FRONTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE
SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF
3-5 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS DIMINISHING MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 26N69W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT, PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE N OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N26W TO 26N36W. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FOUND N OF THE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF 55W
EARLY ON THU. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NORTHERN
FLORIDA THU NIGHT, GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, MAY PRECEDE THIS FRONT AS
IT EMERGES OFF THE COAST. ELSEWHERE, WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE
TO FRESH OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
THIS WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN NIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT. OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
AL
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