066
AXNT20 KNHC 070439
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU MAY 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0438 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 32W, S OF
11N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17.5W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 01S31W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM
00N35W TO NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S
OF 04N ALONG BOTH, THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E
GULF AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 87W, EXCEPT FOR FRESH
TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS W OF
87W ARE 3 TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN
GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS BY THU MORNING,
QUICKLY STALL THU EVENING, THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS
THE BASIN FROM THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY TRY
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE ON SUN, AND REACH FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON MON,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE FRONTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THOUGH DIMINISHING THERE MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 28N63W, THEN IT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 31N57W TO 28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE COLD FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT, PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE WINDS ARE N
OF 29N WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N35W TO 28N34W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS, AND SEAS OF
6-8 FT ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 30N AND EAST OF 47W. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE WASHING OUT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA THU NIGHT, GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION AS IT
SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA, INCREASING
TO FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF BOTH FRONTS. OTHERWISE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N56W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE IN PLACE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.
KRV
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