343
AXNT20 KNHC 071734
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU MAY 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 33.5W,
S OF 11N, AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 01S31W, WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED
ABOVE TO THE WEST. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM WEST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 00N36W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 00N47W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 05N ALONG
BOTH THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 1200 UTC FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LA
COAST TO COASTAL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM NEAR 26N93W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NW OF VERACRUZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA W OF 87W TO THE TROUGH AND S OF 25N. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FROM THE NE AT MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS. SEAS
ARE 4-6 FT W OF 88W, AND 1-4 FT E OF 88W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS, WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
TODAY, THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL STALL
JUST BEYOND THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING, THEN LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE
EVENINGS THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY TRY TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE ON SUN, AND REACH FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON MON,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE TO PRECEDE THE FRONTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES AND 2-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
WITH NIGHTTIME PULSES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 31N54W THEN
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 27N61W. A FRONTAL REMNANT TROUGH
THEN EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO NEAR 29N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY N OF 25N AND W OF 50W. GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL E OF
55W, WHILE SEAS W OF 55W AND AWAY FROM THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE
ARE GENERALLY 2-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N54W TO 27N61W, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PRESENT N OF
25N WITHIN OF ABOUT 240 NM E-SE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE WASHING OUT TODAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT, GRADUALLY LOSING
DEFINITION AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WATERS NORTH OF 28N THROUGH SAT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA SUN
NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF BOTH FRONTS. OTHERWISE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N55W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA WILL BE
IN PLACE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, MODERATE WINDS OFF
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA MIGHT PULSE TO STRONG DURING SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS.
ADAMS
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