881
AXNT20 KNHC 072325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI MAY 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 33.5W,
S OF 11N, AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 00N30W, WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED
ABOVE TO THE WEST. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM WEST OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 00N35W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 00N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOBILE BAY, ALABAMA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE,
TEXAS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. DENSE LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EVIDENT NORTH OF THE FRONT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND MOSTLY 2-4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF TEXAS TONIGHT AND
FRI, THEN SPREAD SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE FRI
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SINKS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT
THRU SAT. AFTERWARD, THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
FROM THE EAST. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL PULSE TO BETWEEN FRESH AND
STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT MIGHT MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE SUN, AND REACH FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON MON, FOLLOWED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE TO PRECEDE THE FRONTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND 2-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WITH
NIGHTTIME PULSES TO NEAR-GALE AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 31N53W
THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 26N60W. A FRONTAL REMNANT
TROUGH THEN EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO NEAR 28N69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GENERALLY
NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF 50W. MODERATE SW WINDS AND 3-4 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF.
GENTLE BREEZES AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N
AND WEST OF 50W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZES AND 4-7 FT SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD NORTH OF 28N THROUGH SAT. IT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY
MODERATE WINDS OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH FRI. THEN A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH MON THROUGH TUE,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF BOTH FRONTS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA MIGHT SAT THROUGH MON NIGHTS.
CHRISTENSEN
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