114
AXNT20 KNHC 081638
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI MAY 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, SOUTH OF 09N WITH
AXIS NEAR 39W, MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 01N34W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF 07N AND BETWEEN
17W AND 33W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR THE
U.S. MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THIS
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A
1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF DOMINATES THE REST OF
THE BASIN, SUPPORTING TRANQUIL WEATHER. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT, WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
BY TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GULF FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MIGHT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE
SUN, AND REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
LATE ON MON, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH NIGHTTIME PULSES TO NEAR-GALE IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS, THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH,
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS CAUSING LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER, AND HIGH
PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB CENTER NEAR 27N61W, DOMINATES
MOVES OF THE BASIN W OF 35W, TRANSLATING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM 31N TO 25N ALONG 52W, INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N32W.
FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE N OF THIS FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH SAT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD NORTH OF
28N. SOUTHERLY MODERATE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OCCURRING OFF NE
FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH MON THROUGH TUE, FOLLOWED BY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF BOTH
FRONTS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N65W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFF
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA MIGHT SAT THROUGH MON NIGHTS.
KONARIK
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