121
AXNT20 KNHC 091654
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT MAY 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS PULSING TONIGHT
AND SUN NIGHT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS. THIS
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND THE PULSING GALES WILL END MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, SOUTH OF 09N
WITH AXIS NEAR 47W, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS NO DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS CONFINED INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 00N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR APPALACHICOLA, FLORIDA,
TO LAKE PONCHATRAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED FROM OFFSHORE
CORPUS CHRISTI BAY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT
120 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, MOST OF
THE BASIN HAS MODERATE OR WEAKER SE WINDS, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
FARTHER SOUTH, WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY
MON MORNING, AND REACH FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE MON, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO
NE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ MON
NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE
BASIN TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE COLOMBIA.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH
ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. FRESH TO STRONG WITH
LOCALLY NEAR-GALE E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM 31N62W NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE, FLORIDA.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOW CONFINED TO ITS
NORTH AND N OF OUR AREA. FOR WATERS N OF 21N, AN OVERALL WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT, MAINLY INFLUENCED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION, IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NE ATLANTIC,
WHERE ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND E OF 25N.
TO THE S OF 21N, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED REACH A SIMILAR
LOCATION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT MON THROUGH TUE, FOLLOWED BY
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SECOND FRONT. MEANWHILE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON NIGHT.
KONARIK
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