957
AXNT20 KNHC 092311
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN MAY 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS OFF NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS. THIS
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE PULSING GALE
CONDITIONS TO END MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED NEAR THE
COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 17W FROM 01N TO 09N BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ON UPPER-LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS BEHIND THE WAVE FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 09N AND THE WAVE.
A WEAK CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 50W
SOUTH 09N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NO DEEP IS NOTED
AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS CONFINED INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 01N25W, THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO
NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE
ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF 04.5N29W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA,
FLORIDA TO LAKE PONCHATRAIN, LOUISIANA AND CONTINUES TO JUST
INLAND TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM NEAR
27.5N94W TO 25N96W, AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THERE TO JUST NORTH OF
COATZACOALCOS, MEXICO. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE INDUCING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ABOUT 60 TO 120 NM
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, MOST OF THE
BASIN REMAINS UNDER A FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT THAT IS GENERALLY
ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR WEAKER SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
STATED EARLIER WILL LINGER INTO SUN. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. FARTHER SOUTH, WINDS WILL PULSE TO
STRONG NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY MON MORNING, AND REACH FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OFF VERACRUZ MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE GULF TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ON AN
ONGOING GALE WARNING FOR OFFSHORE COLOMBIA.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE WARNING INFORMATION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS LEADING RESULT IN FRESH TO NEAR
GALE- FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH ROUGH
SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH GALE-FORCE OFF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND ON
SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR- GALE E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N58W TO
30.5N70W AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WEST OF ABOUT 73W. FOR WATERS NORTH OF 21N, AN OVERALL
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, MAINLY INFLUENCED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
FROM HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION, IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC, WHERE ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND EAST OF ABOUT 25W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 21N.
MODERATE SEAS ARE WITH THESE TRADES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT, STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS ONES, IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH MON THROUGH
TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS SECOND FRONT.
MEANWHILE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page