212
AXNT20 KNHC 111047
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON MAY 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1020 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ONGOING GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
SPEEDS LATER THIS MORNING. ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 9 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR
23W, FROM 00N TO 10N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 15W AND 30W.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND GUYANA WITH AXIS NEAR 57W S OF
10N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE SURINAME AND GUYANA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES SW TO 07N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N18W TO 04N22W, THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM
02N24W TO 01S45W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO
05N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MAINLY THE NW BASIN.
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING NIGHTLY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND STRETCH FROM
NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE, THEN STALL OVER THE FAR
SE BASIN WED. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E
WINDS WILL PULSE TONIGHT OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
TAIL OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF WED NIGHT AND
MOVE E OF THE BASIN ON THU. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD AND
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT GALE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC FORCES FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
FRI NIGHT, EXCEPT WED WHEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO
FRESH DURING THE DAY. PULSING GALES OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WILL
DIMINISH TO STRONG SPEEDS LATER THIS MORNING WHILE FRESH TO STRONG
E TO SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE
TO FRESH SPEEDS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 70W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A BROAD RIDGE THAT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 25N. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING TUE AND WED. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLY WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, AFFECTING MAINLY THE
OFFSHORES N OF 29N BEFORE THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUE NIGHT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME STRONG, ARE EXPECTED. STARTING MID-WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
SE-S WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS E OF 70W AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF NE FLORIDA THU MORNING.
RAMOS
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