856
AXNT20 KNHC 111633
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON MAY 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1633 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED
TO 27W, FROM 01S TO 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
FROM 04S TO 04.5N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 58W S OF 14N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE SURINAME AND GUYANA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES SW TO 04N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 01N29W TO 03N50W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KT AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 87W. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY WED. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ON WED AND
THU. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NE
GULF THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE E GULF ON FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC FORCES FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A MODERATE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES
HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS. LARGE E SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N AND W OF 64W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE
THAT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH
OF 25N. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
WATERS OFF OF NE FLORIDA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, EXTEND ALONG 30N
AND BECOMING STATIONARY WED MORNING, THEN LIFTING NORTH OF OUR
WATERS AS A WARM FRONT BY THU MORNING. WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE FRESH
OR WEAKER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD,
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC FROM NE FLORIDA ON
THU, AND REACHING FROM 31N70W TO 26N72W FRI MORNING. S WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG.
KRV
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