744
AXNT20 KNHC 201003
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED MAY 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W, SOUTH OF 15N,
AND MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF THE
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W, THEN RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N19W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 19W TO 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION,
GENERATED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS, IS IMPACTING WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BRINGING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN
88W AND 94W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE UNITED
STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FORCING E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE W GULF, PULSING TO
STRONG TONIGHT OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BEGINNING THU, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN STRONG TRADE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 10
FT. FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT, EXCEPT IN THE NW BASIN, WHERE GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH N OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS, AND THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH ROUGH SEAS CONTINUING. FRESH TRADES WILL ALSO PULSE EACH
EVENING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN ELONGATED DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N75W
TO N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, DOMINATES MOST OF THE REST OF THE
BASIN, ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 26N59W.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
SEAS GENERATED FROM HIGHER WINDS TO THE NORTH ARE IMPACTING
WATERS N OF THE FRONT, CAUSING SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT N OF 30N BETWEEN
35W AND 45W. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. TO THE S OF 22N, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES DOMINATE WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU. SE WINDS
WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING
NORTH OF OUR WATERS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN
QUIESCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KONARIK
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