829
AXNT20 KNHC 210357
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU MAY 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 69W, SOUTH OF 16N AND
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 05N22W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N22W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF 08N. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OFF LIBERIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND OFF NORTHERN YUCATAN AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA
AND OFF TAMAULIPAS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF YUCATAN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MARINERS
TRANSITING THROUGH THESE WATERS ARE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR BERMUDA DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
PREVALENT. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING ARE SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA, HISPANIOLA,
JAMAICA AND NEARBY WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ROUGH SEAS TO THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO PULSE EACH EVENING OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES WILL REMAIN ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N77W AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. THE REST OF THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 55W.
FARTHER EAST, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N29W TO 25N57W AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING
BEHIND THE FRONT, EAST OF 43W. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER FRANCE. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN WESTERN AFRICA RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS FROM 14N TO 22N AND EAST OF 22W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 23N AND EAST
OF 35W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A LARGE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OFF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN RATHER QUITE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DELGADO
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