599
AXNT20 KNHC 211657
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU MAY 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1657 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A EASTERN ATLANTIC WAS INTRODUCED IN THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.
THIS WAVE IS NEAR 36W, SOUTH OF 00N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO NEAR
74W, SOUTH OF 15N BASED ON TROPICAL WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. THIS WAVE IS
CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURES NEAR COLOMBIA AND THE
EASTERN END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THUS,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF 12N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 03N23W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO 02N33W. ANOTHER PORTION OF THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N39.5W TO 07N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF 05N AND EAST OF 23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF 09N BETWEEN
39W AND 52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA EXTENDS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF IS
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 22N AND
WEST OF 90W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THIS CONVECTION MIGHT BE LOCALLY
HIGHER.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND RELATIVELY
LOWER PRESSURES OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF NW YUCATAN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES THAT WILL BE MOVING ENE ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL
GULF SECTIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MARINERS TRANSITING
THROUGH THESE WATERS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST AND WEATHER
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO BEGINNING OR CONTINUING THEIR TRANSITS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
BROAD RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA FORCES FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF CUBA AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL,
WHILE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ROUGH SEAS TO THAT PORTION OF THE
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO PULSE EACH EVENING OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES WILL REMAIN ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE NW BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE
SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF BERMUDA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 27N AND WEST OF 55W.
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N27W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N62W. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER FRANCE. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN WESTERN
AFRICA RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10N TO
23N AND EAST OF 30W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE LARGE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO
NEAR 71W AND SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY
THROUGH EARLY FRI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PULSE FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN RATHER QUITE MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KRV
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