305
AXNT20 KNHC 221629
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI MAY 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1629 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 41W, SOUTH OF 11N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ITS AXIS IS ALONG 78W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N25W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N25W TO 02N38W AND FROM 01N44.5W TO 03N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH
OF 03N BETWEEN 10W AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
09N BETWEEN 35W AND 53W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION.
THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE, A GENTLE TO
MODERATE WIND FLOW, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED IN THE EASTERN GULF
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER
NEAR TSTMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF NW YUCATAN FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
THE RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
AREA AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA. POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, ARE AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING ROUGH SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO PULSE EACH EVENING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES WILL REMAIN
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A LARGE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH, REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IS ANALYZED FROM
28N28.5W TO 23N55.5W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED E OF
BERMUDA DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. UNDER THIS
WEATHER PATTERN, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH E
OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
GENERALLY TO THE E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH BECOMES LESS DEFINED. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WILL PULSE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN PART OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FROM SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON BEFORE STALLING NEAR 26N,
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
SUBSIDING LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA STARTING MON, INCLUDING
THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE ENTRANCE TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
AREA SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD LEADING TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
KRV
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