432
AXNT20 KNHC 222329
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI MAY 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2220 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 43W, SOUTH OF 11N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ, ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 40W
AND 49W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
ANALYZED ALONG 78W-79W, SOUTH OF 15N AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TO NEAR 05N, MOVING WESTWARD 5-10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE, WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE CONVERGING ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN, FROM THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO 74W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N25W TO 01N34W TO
02.5N41W, THEN RESUMES FROM 04N45W TO 07N52W TO THE COAST OF
SURINAME NEAR 06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 12W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE COAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE FAIR.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF NW YUCATAN FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MARINERS
SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
THE RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SE OF BERMUDA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, WHILE
A CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING OFF THE NW
COAST OF JAMAICA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST BASIN ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MOVING
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
N OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CREATING ROUGH SEAS OVER
THOSE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO PULSE EACH EVENING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES WILL REMAIN
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A LARGE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS NE OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN
60W AND 70W, AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN
21N AND 28N. THE UPPER LOW ANCHORS THE WESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC
TUTT ORIGINATING IN A BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR 29N26W. AT THE SURFACE,
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDS A BROAD SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE SE UNITED STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IS ANALYZED FROM 28N31W TO 24N59W. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS, W OF 25W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, AND SURFACE TROUGH,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH A FEW SMALL AREAS OF
SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR THE STRONGEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE N OF THE TROUGH,
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED WITH MODERATE
SEAS. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THAT
DESCRIBED ABOVE. SAHARAN AIR CAN BE SEEN EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
AFRICA TO NEAR 38W, BEHIND THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH E
OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
GENERALLY TO THE E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH BECOMES LESS DEFINED. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WILL PULSE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN PART OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FROM SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON BEFORE STALLING NEAR 26N,
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
SUBSIDING LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA STARTING MON, INCLUDING
THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE ENTRANCE TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
AREA SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD LEADING TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
STRIPLING
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