629
AXNT20 KNHC 230506
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT MAY 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED NEAR 18W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 11W
AND 20W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 45W, SOUTH OF 12N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 79-80W, SOUTH OF 15N AND INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO NEAR 05N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 11N AND W OF 80W.
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N25W TO 01N34W TO
02N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 03N BETWEEN
23W AND 41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US IS SUPPORTING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE N AND W
GULF COAST FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY BEACH, FL TO NEAR TAMPICO,
MEXICO. RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF SUPPORTS
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS PULSING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH LATE MON,
THEN WEAKEN INTO MIDWEEK. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH
EARLY SUN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS W OF ABOUT
94W SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE TEXAS
COAST. WINDS THEN GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST AT GENTLE TO MODERATE
SPEEDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF NW
YUCATAN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS DUE
TO LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG, ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION AND
THE COLOMBIA LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS
WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND 2-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA, CUBA,
AND JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CREATING ROUGH SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO PULSE EACH EVENING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BASIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE STARTING EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS STRONGER ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS S OF
22N, AS WELL AS AREAS N OF 22N AND E OF 30W. WINDS ARE LOCALLY
FRESH TO STRONG IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS, CONFIRMED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED E OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 32N58W DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WILL PULSE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN PART OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA FROM SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON BEFORE STALLING NEAR 26N,
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DISSIPATING ON TUE. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT,
SUBSIDING LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA STARTING MON, INCLUDING
THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE ENTRANCE TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD LEADING TO A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page