486
AXNT20 KNHC 232258
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN MAY 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION, ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND NEARBY ITCZ, IS FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 50W, SOUTH OF 12N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NEAR 81W, SOUTH OF
15N AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 05N. THIS WAVE IS
NEARLY STATIONARY, WITH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM SAN ANDRES
ISLAND INDICATING THE WAVE REMAINS EAST OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N23W TO 01N45W,
EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF WATERS
MAINLY N OF 25N AND W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE, THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF WATERS. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE ANALYZED TO RANGE
FROM 2-4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH LATE
MON, THEN WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RELATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEAST WINDS W OF ABOUT 94W TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST
AT GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF NW YUCATAN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NW AND NORTHERN GULF W OF 89W WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SUN. IN ADDITION, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THAT PART OF
THE GULF. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE, SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SUPPORTS AN ANALYSIS OF 4-7 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW, ARE AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION BY GENERATING ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THOSE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE EACH
EVENING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS N ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WATERS, PROVIDING FOR GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. POCKETS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MAY GENERATE A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN
PART OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA FROM SUN EVENING INTO MON BEFORE STALLING NEAR
27N, THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATING ON TUE. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, SUBSIDING LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA STARTING MON,
INCLUDING THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE
ENTRANCE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS INITIALLY STRONGER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN WED ALLOWING FOR
THE TIGHT GRADIENT TO SLACKEN LEADING TO DIMINISHING TRADES.
EXPECT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING
AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ERA
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