695
AXNT20 KNHC 240524
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN MAY 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION, ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND NEARBY ITCZ, IS FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 51W, SOUTH OF 12N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NEAR 81W, SOUTH OF
15N AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 05N. THIS WAVE IS
NEARLY STATIONARY, WITH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR DATA FROM SAN ANDRES
ISLAND INDICATING THE WAVE REMAINS EAST OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N23W TO 01N45W,
EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF
WATERS MAINLY N OF 26N AND W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE, THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF WATERS. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
E WINDS PULSING OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE ANALYZED AT 2-4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH LATE MON,
THEN WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RELATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUN, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST
WINDS W OF ABOUT 94W TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS THEN GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST AT GENTLE
TO MODERATE SPEEDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PULSING OFF NW YUCATAN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THAT PART OF THE GULF. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SUPPORTS AN ANALYSIS OF 4-7 FT
SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN, WHILE AREAS NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE SEEING SEAS OF 7-9 FT PREVAIL. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER THE WATERS NEAR CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK BRINGING ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THOSE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE EACH
EVENING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS N ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WATERS, PROVIDING FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. WINDS ARE LOCALLY STRONG ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF
HISPANIOLA. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFFSHORE THE SE US AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN
PART OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA FROM SUN EVENING INTO MON BEFORE STALLING NEAR
27N, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DISSIPATING ON TUE. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, SUBSIDING LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA STARTING MON,
INCLUDING THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE
ENTRANCE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS INITIALLY STRONGER ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WED
ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT GRADIENT TO SLACKEN LEADING TO DIMINISHING
TRADES. EXPECT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page