799
AXNT20 KNHC 242152
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON MAY 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2140 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS
TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED SOUTH OF BARBADOS ALONG 59W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
OVER GUYANA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NEAR 82W, SOUTH OF
14N AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION TO NEAR 05N. THE POSITION
IS BASED IN PART ON THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM SAN ANDRES
ISLAND. THIS WAVE IS DRIFTING WEST AT 5 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR DAKAR, SENEGAL AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N30W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FORM 03N30W TO 01N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
GULF OF AMERICA...
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG A SQUALL LINE REACHING FROM
JUST SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
24N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ACTIVE NEAR 28N87W,
AND OFF BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS. THIS CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE WINDS AND 2-4 SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF NW YUCATAN
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, MORE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE NW PART OF THE BASIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LIMITED VISIBILITY AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK HELPING
TO INDUCE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA,
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AS NOTED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE MODERATE TO FRESH PER THE
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL
PULSE EACH EVENING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE STARTING MON AS A STRONGER ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WATERS, PROVIDING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF 25N. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH OF 25N, WITH 3-5 FT
SEAS, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS S OF 25N STARTING MON, INCLUDING THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE ENTRANCE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AS A STRONGER ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN WED ALLOWING FOR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SLACKEN LEADING TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WILL PULSE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING CREATING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE WESTERN PART OF A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON BEFORE STALLING NEAR 27N, AND
DISSIPATING ON TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS SUBSIDING ON TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
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