327
AXNT20 KNHC 250459
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON MAY 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEN
S OF 04N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VENEZUELA, GUYANA, AND SURINAME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NEAR 84W, FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AROUND
03N84W. THIS WAVE IS DRIFTING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA, ENHANCED BY THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WHICH ALSO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N22W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO 04N31W WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FORM 02N34W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 18W AND
22W, AND ALSO FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA, GENERALLY N
OF 22N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS PREVAILING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF S OF 25N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAILING N OF 25N. SEAS OF 2-5 FT ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SUSTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THU. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COUPLE WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST WED. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LIMITED
VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA, AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AS NOTED IN RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE MODERATE TO
FRESH PER THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS
THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR 8-10 FT SEAS OFFSHORE NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THU. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA AT NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TRADES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL
REACH FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ARE GOING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN BY MON BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION WATERS AT 31N43W AND EXTENDS
TO 29N53W TO 31N61W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN MAINLY SOUTH OF 25N. LOCALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS ARE
CONFIRMED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA OFF THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA, NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE, AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTH OF 25N, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS, IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH
WED MORNING, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AS A STRONGER
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH BEGIN TO WEAKEN WED, IT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
PULSE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING,
CREATING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE WESTERN PART OF A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON BEFORE STALLING NEAR 27N, AND DISSIPATING
ON TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDING ON
TUE.
ADAMS
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