056
AXNT20 KNHC 251052
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON MAY 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 66W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS VENEZUELA, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN
VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE MAURITANIA COAST
NEAR NOUAKCHOTT, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N22W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 06N22W TO 03N32W, THEN RESUMES FROM 02N36W TO
NEAR THE AMAZON RIVER DELTA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 05N TO 10N WEST OF 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF BOTH ITCZ
SEGMENTS.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A MODEST SURFACE RIDGE RUNS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. MEANWHILE AT THE UPPER LEVEL, A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IS
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. DIVERGENT WINDS EAST OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH THE MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FOUND AT THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF, EXCEPT LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS THROUGH THU.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN, AND AT THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON WED NIGHT. SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, LIMITED
VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO KEEP UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE LEE OF
CUBA TO OVER SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE, A ROBUST
TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE ENE TO E
TRADES AND 9 TO 11 FT SEAS AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS
AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN AND PART OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. FRESH E WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT
AT THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THU. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF BARRANQUILLA, COLOMBIA DURING NIGHT-TIME AND
MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODERATE TRADES IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
GOING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE AZORES ACROSS
31N42W TO 27N53W, THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO BEYOND 31N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING UP TO 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF
THIS BOUNDARY. AIDED BY MODEST DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, CONVERGENT
TRADES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT NEAR AND
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE
NOTED FROM 20N TO 25N AND WEST OF 55W, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA
BANK. IN THIS AREA, SEAS RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 FT EAST OF 76W, AND 3
TO 6 FT WEST OF 76W. NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH 4 T 6 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT,
INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TO THE EAST, A BROAD
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3
TO 5 FT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE
SEEN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WATERS SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH
WED MORNING, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AS A STRONG ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN WED, IT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO STRONG AT NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT, CREATING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. THE WESTERN
PART OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 29N57W WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR
25N56W BY TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ON TUE. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON TUE.
CHAN
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